7/6/2023 0 Comments Big weather eventsSynopsisĪn upper trough – extending southward from an eastern Canada cyclone – is forecast to sweep eastward across the Northeast Wednesday, as a second Canadian low – over the Prairie Provinces – advances slowly southward toward the north-central U.S. Valid 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONĪ few severe storms – capable of producing gusty/damaging winds – may affect the central and southern High Plains region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Outlook Imagesĭay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Outlook for Wednesday, May 17 Outlook SummaryĪ few severe storms - capable of producing gusty/damaging winds - may affect the central and southern High Plains region Wednesday afternoon and evening. NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z ← back to overview This should support a threat for isolated large hail with rotating storms that form during the late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z along the instability axis have MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear near 36 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates above 8 C/km in a few locations. Thunderstorms will move south-southeastward along an axis of instability from western Nebraska into far northwestern Kansas. As surface temperatures warm along a lee trough, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming. Central High PlainsĪn upper-level trough will move southeastward across the central High Plains today. The wind-damage threat is expected to continue into the early evening as additional cells form in the higher terrain and move eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to develop during the mid to late afternoon from southeast Kentucky and northeast Tennessee eastward into western Virginia and far northwestern North Carolina. Supercells could produce isolated large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Cells that remain discrete will have potential to become supercells. This combination will be favorable for damaging wind gusts, along the leading edge of intense multicell line segments. Also, 0-3 km lapse rates will steepen to near 7.5 C/km. Forecast soundings suggest that winds will be mostly unidirectional from the west-southwest above 850 mb. In response, moderate deep-layer shear will develop over much of the warm sector. The mid-level jet associated with the approaching upper-level trough, will steadily increase in strength over the region around midday. Several clusters or short line segments are expected to develop and move eastward across the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon. This, along with surface heating should result in scattered convective initiation around midday. Low-level convergence is forecast to increase near the surface low. This line could be associated with a wind-damage threat. ![]() ![]() A line segment is expected to move eastward across southern Kentucky this morning. Surface dewpoints are expected to increase into the lower to mid 60s F across much of the southern and central Appalachians, where moderate instability will likely develop by early afternoon. ![]() At the surface, a low will move eastward across Kentucky today, with moisture advection occurring ahead of the track of the low. Southern and Central AppalachiansĪn upper-level trough will dig southeastward today across the Ohio Valley, as a 45 to 55 knot mid-level jet develops and translates eastward through the central Appalachians. ![]() Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes are expected to develop across parts of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon into early evening. Valid 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
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